CSP IV: Results from the SPXU Trade, and Other Thoughts

Monday, 9/19/22: The SPXU 23Sep16.5P sale executed at 10:48 for 0.23. SPXU stayed around Friday’s close of 17.95 most of the day, and at one point the put had lost enough value that its value was down to 0.17. But around 3PM the market decided to take off, and because this ETF tracks the inverse of the S&P500, it’s price dropped, causing the value of the 16.5P to go back up. SPXU lost 38 cents today to close at 17.57, still quite far from the sold put, which is now valued at 0.27, at 25Δ. And my account shows that the position lost $4 today, which is just the difference between the sold value of 0.23 and the current value of 0.27, times 100. But don’t worry just yet: SPXU could drop a whole dollar more before the put is challenged, and there are only 4 days left for it to do that.

I don’t think I’ve explained this before, so let’s discuss this selling and buying of puts. With SPXU at about $18, I made a deal with someone (a contract) to buy 100 shares of their SPXU if its price drops to 16.50 by this Friday. That’s insurance for them against about an 8% drop in the ETF’s price. As the insurer, I looked at the statistical probability of that happening (reflected in the delta) and decided that was a reasonable event to insure for a weekly premium of 1.3% measured against the collateral at risk. So I sold that option contract for $23, which I pocketed and get to keep regardless.

So what can happen next? Well, what I WANT to happen is for SPXU to either stay at the same price, or ideally, even rise in price. If it does either of those things I’ll get to keep all that sweet premium. But why, how does that work? Say SPXU had closed today still at about $18: is that insurance policy still worth $23? No, because now instead of insuring for 5 days, it’ll only be insuring against 4 days of market exposure. So it should only be worth four-fifths of its value this morning. If SPXU is flat again tomorrow, the put loses another fifth of its value, etc. That’s the time value of the option, and is what we’re selling and trying to profit from.

But what if SPXU opens 50 cents higher tomorrow? Well now the insurance policy is worth even less, but for a different reason: with SPXU at 18.50, insurance against a $2 drop (my promise to buy is still at 16.50) is worth less than the insurance against the original $1.50 drop. Similar to a deductible on your home or auto insurance: if I have to cover more of the loss, then I’d expect to pay less for that policy. Make sense?

But of course the other thing SPXU can do is go down in price. I can still make money, but now it gets worrisome. And why? Because with SPXU at say, $17, now that “deductible”, the amount of loss the policy-holder has to cover, is only $50, so he’s going to value that insurance policy more. As will anyone else looking at that contract, which brings up an important point.

Option contracts don’t have to stay with the original buyer. They can be sold to anyone who wants to pay what it’s worth, at any time before expiration. If SPXU opens tomorrow at 17, this 16.5P contract would be worth about 0.45. That’s nearly twice what I sold it for, and I’m still on the hook for that insurance obligation. If I wanted to get out of that contract because I thought SPXU was headed down further by Friday, I’d have to buy it back. But I can’t just “give back” the $23 and say I don’t want to insure SPXU anymore; I have to actually buy back the contract at whatever it’s worth on the open market. Which would mean paying $45 for it if that’s the midpoint of what people were bidding and asking for it.

But don’t panic yet, for several reasons:

  • Remember the $1650 I set aside in case I had to actually buy SPXU? Well pony up, because this is what I signed up for. If SPXU ends the week below 16.50 I can take assignment and wait for it to rebound, or even earn money on it by using Covered Calls, the subject of another thread.
  • SPXU might not drop all the way down to 16.50. If it doesn’t, then at 4PM on expiration Friday, that contract will be worthless because its time has run out and my insurance obligation is ended. So I could just hold on and see what happens.
  • Remember the $23 I collected? That protects me down to 23 cents below 16.50 or 16.27, which is the Breakeven Point. I’ll still have to pay 16.50 per share for 100 shares, but if the actual market value of SPXU is anything above 16.27 then I’ve still made a profit on the trade.
  • At any time I can buy back the contract and take a loss, without having to buy the shares. But generally you should wait until expiration day to do that. The reason being, the 16.5P might be selling for 0.45 tomorrow with SPXU at $17, but what is it actually worth? In real terms, nothing. The holder wouldn’t exercise it and sell shares to me at 16.50 that are going for $17 on the open market, so that put has no real worth, no “intrinsic value”. But what it does have is “uncertainty” value, or “what if” value. “What if SPXU falls to 16.50 or lower? I want to be protected for that.” That’s the option’s “extrinsic”, or intangible value. So if SPXU continues to fall all week, its value will stay at a high-ish level based on that uncertainty. But always remember this: if the stock price is above the strike at expiration, the option will expire with no value at 4PM on expiration Friday. Regardless of what the option premium is doing Thursday and into Friday.

Readers with some options experience or study, even if just reading Reddit forums (which I learn a lot from), are saying, “But Mike@10DT, you forgot the most important alternative: just roll the put out and you won’t have to take a loss!” I may tackle that concept sometime, but I actually did include that: it’s the last one where you buy back the contract for a loss. Now what you do AFTER that is up to you. If you move on to a different ticker and sell a put that covers that loss, great. Or you could sell a put on the SAME ticker where the premium covers the loss, and that’s great too. But that’s exactly what they mean when they say you can roll (always out in time, sometimes down in strike). I do it sometimes, and sometimes I don’t, but don’t kid yourself: you’re covering a loss with the sale of a different put. If it makes sense to do that on the same ticker then go ahead, but it may be that your thesis about that symbol was incorrect and you should probably write that one off.

I guess that’s enough for this post. In the next post I’ll discuss 14 other 1%-in-5DTE CSPs I put on this Monday morning, and then track them through the week.

More SPXU followup

  • Tue close: 18.14, up 0.58. The 16.5P lost 0.12, ending the day at 0.15. I sold it for 0.23, so it’s “made” $8 so far, with 3 days to go.
  • Wed close: 19.11, up 0.97, a whopping 5.3%, leaving the 16.5P in the dust and making it worth only 2.5c. I would’ve normally put a 50% keep-profit BTC order on it, but for this experiment I wanted to keep it open to see exactly what it would do.
  • Thu: I bought back the 61P for 0.02. Return: (23 – 2 – 1.32)/1650 = 1.2% for the week. I’d be happy with a trade like that every week.

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