CC III: Salvaging CSPs that were Assigned

In this post on Cash Secured Puts (CSPs) I opened (14) 5DTE trades and tracked them over the week. Seven of them were based on the prior week’s best-performing ETFs with weekly options, and as an experiment I also did 7 trades on the worst-performing ETFs of that prior week. Those actually started out well, but by the end of the week they were all ITM. And so I’d have fodder for a Covered Calls thread, I let them all get assigned.

It’s Sunday night, 9/25/22, and here are those trades:

  • FAS closed Friday at 58.35, and was “put” to me at 64. Loss of 8.8%. Ouch.
  • JNUG closed at 22.65, assigned at 23. Down 1.8%, not bad.
  • SOXL 10.02, assigned at 10.50, 4.6%
  • TNA 29.80/34, 12.3%
  • TQQQ 21.35/23, 7.2%
  • UPRO 31.20/35, 10.9%
  • YINN 44.79/46, 2.7%

TNA was the biggest loser, so let’s start with it. First a reminder that this strategy is called “The Wheel.” I sold a CSP on TNA hoping it would expire worthless and I’d get to keep the premium, then maybe next week sell another one. But the ETF’s price dropped low enough that it was below the strike of the put contract I had sold. I could’ve done some things to maybe avoid assignment, but to keep it simple for the blog I decided to just take it.

So while initially it looks like I lost $4.20 per share, I collected premium when I sold the put, which counts against the 4.20, because that was profit I made on the front-end. Looking back in my account, I sold a TNA put for 0.62, which was profit, so I get to offset some of the loss with that. But not so fast, because generally when you sell an option contract (put or call), it’s customary/prudent/safer to “buy it back” at half the max theoretical profit, so I did that for TNA at 0.29. Sold for 62c, bought back for 29c, means I made 33c per share on that trade. So I get to take 33c off the 4.20 loss.

But that initial CSP opened AND closed Monday, so I sold another put for 46c. That one closed Wednesday for 21c, so I sold ANOTHER put, this one at 37c. Thursday & Friday last week were brutal for the market, TNA tanked, and that’s how I ended up getting assigned so far above the closing price. But I did get to keep the full 37c. So the 3 premiums collected were 33c + 25c + 37c = 0.95, which again, gets to come off the 4.20 loss. Not a lot, but it helps.

Only I didn’t factor in trading commissions. TDA charges 0.0065 per trade, selling or buying back, and while that doesn’t seem like a lot, it adds up, and for thoroughness should be included, especially at the low premiums I’m collecting on 1%-per-week 5DTE trades, which are typically 10-20 delta. There were 5 trades, and 5 times 0.0065 is 3.25c. Subtract that from the gross premiums of 95c to leave 91.75 cents. There’s another little trading fee I didn’t mention, so let’s round that down to net premiums of 91c.

Now, FINALLY, I get to calculate my actual loss: 4.20 – 0.91 = $3.29 per share. That’s how much in the hole I am from $34, where I had to buy the shares. And that $3.29/share is what I need to try to earn back by selling calls against the shares I now own. Here’s next week’s call option chain for TNA:

The columns are Delta, Bid, Ask, Expiration, and Strike.

Spot is 29.80, so the 29-strike row is colored blue because it’s ITM, while the lower rows (higher strikes) are OTM.

So if we want to earn back the loss of 3.29 per share, let’s just sell the 30C for 1.64 (midpoint), then do that again next week, and boom, we’ll be whole again, right? Maybe. If TNA stays below 30 that could work. But what if it doesn’t? Say TNA ends next week at 30.01: the buyer of the call will exercise and take our shares because they’d make a penny a share, $1 per contract, by doing that (if a contract is ITM, it will always be assigned). But look at the overall picture: we bought TNA at 34 (last Friday when it was put to us), and just sold it for 30.

We bought high and sold low, which isn’t how you make money. Granted, we took in 1.64, AND got the stock appreciation from 29.80 to 30, which is 0.20, so we actually pocketed 1.64 + 0.20 = 1.84. But take off 1c for that 0.0065 commission and call it 1.83. We improved our position though by making 1.83 against the 3.29 per share loss. But we still have a loss of 1.46.

Is there anything we can we do that’s safer, so we don’t lock in a loss? The simplest thing is to go out to the 34 strike and sell that call for 0.35. If TNA reaches 34 this week we’ll be happy because then we’d get to sell our shares for 34, which is what we paid for them. AND we’d get to keep the 35c. But TNA would have to move up 4.20 this week, which is 14% and not likely.

If TNA would stay mostly flat, we could offset the loss by selling weekly calls worth about 35c week after week. But that’s only about one-tenth of the 3.29 loss, so it would take us maybe 10 weeks to just break even on the trade. And that’s 10 weeks plus last week: 11 weeks where that collateral, that pile of money, is at best maybe breaking even. No, that won’t do. Can we get to break-even faster, so we can milk some profit out of TNA CCs, instead of having the premiums all go to loss-recovery for 10 weeks?

Look at the 33 strike, which would sell for 0.55. What would our position be if we sold that AND TNA rose to 33 by Friday? We’d be selling our $34 stock for 33, which is a $1 loss, but we’d be pocket that 54c (I took out the commission), so our loss would be down to 46c/share. With a cost basis of $34, that’s not too bad, a loss of only 1.4% over 2 weeks. That wouldn’t be a bad deal to take. We’d essentially be saying, “The CSP didn’t work out, but maybe I can get completely out of the trade with only a 1.4% loss in 2 weeks.” The alternative being holding 100 shares of TNA (staying in the trade) for maybe 10 weeks, and still only just breaking even. If we could free up that $3400 quickly for a small loss, we could put it to work for us somewhere else.

But what are the odds that TNA will reach 34 this week? TD Ameritrade’s (TDA) ThinkorSwim (ToS) helpfully provides an Expected Move value in the options chain, upper right:

That number, plus/minus $367, means that the ETF’s price is “expected” to move up or down as much as 3.67, but probably not more, and likely less. And that comes from the Black-Scholes model of option pricing, which we don’t need to understand (and I don’t), but if you’re familiar with a bell curve and standard deviations, $3.67 is 1SD either side of spot. And 1SD means that there’s a 68% chance that the price this week will end within plus/minus 3.67 of today’s price.

It turns out that Delta is an approximation of the probabilities, so if 1SD is a 68% chance of TNA ending the week within that range, then there’s a 32% chance that its ending price is outside that range. It seems to make sense to think about statistically what a stock/ETF’s price might do, and this is why there’s so much talk about 30Δ in options articles, forums, and videos. A 30Δ option (call or put) is out of the money, AND at the strike that is about the expected move point in that direction.

Enough about Deltas and SDs, just know that when selling options, it’s generally good to stay outside (less than) 30Δ.

Back to TNA, the 33C we already looked at is at 25Δ, so just a bit higher than TNA is expected to close at this week. Which is good because we don’t want to sell our stock too low and lock in a major part of the loss we’re already carrying.

We could also look at the 32C for a higher premium of 0.85, but that’s at 33Δ, so it’s actually kind of likely that TNA would reach that this week. If it did, we’d have to sell at 32, locking in a $2 loss, but we’d have the 0.84 premium to offset, so our actual loss would be 1.16. That’s a 3.4% loss on collateral, but might be worth considering if you think TNA is going to continue to go down.

Because that’s the other side of this coin I haven’t talked about. I’ve made it sound like stocks always go up, so if we sell premium at a safe place (the 34C in this case), then all we have to do is wait for the stock price to come back, while pocketing premiums every week. But sometimes stocks go down, and even keep going down. It’s for that reason that might want to be more aggressive (“closer to the money”) with your sold calls.

This has been long, and I’ve only talked about the logic behind one of the 7 trades I need to set up for tomorrow’s open. In the next post I’ll work through the other ones in less detail, but point out any interesting things or thoughts along the way.

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